The Manifesto: The Illogic of the Game

The Hypothesis

Sports betting is an unstable process.

In the world of industry, a process is considered "capable" if it can consistently produce an output within defined limits. In the world of sports betting, millions of people treat the "process" of picking winners as a skill-based science. They study rosters, weather, and injury reports, believing they can minimize variation and predict the future.

We believe they are wrong.

At Illogic Sports, we apply the rigors of Process Improvement and Statistical Auditing to the most chaotic market on earth. Our goal isn't to help you win; it's to prove that you can’t—at least not through "logic."

Our Principles

1

The Law of Large Numbers Always Wins

Individual games are noise. Over time, the house margin (the "vig") is the only stable metric in the entire system.

2

Logic is an Illusion

When a 16-bit game from 1994 (NHL '95) can predict a real-world score as effectively as a "pro handicapper," it proves that "expert analysis" is often just high-resolution guesswork.

3

Variation is the Only Constant

Human performance, referee bias, and the bounce of a puck are "common cause variations" that make the system inherently unpredictable.

4

Transparency is the Cure

We post every sim, every "bet," and every loss. If the data shows that a 30-year-old computer chip is just as "smart" as the betting public, the logic of the market collapses.

"Sports are beautiful because they are unpredictable. Betting is dangerous because we pretend they aren't."